Potential Tropical Storm Patty Chances of Forming Increase

Chances that an area of concern in the Caribbean Sea will strengthen into Tropical Storm Patty later this week have jumped to 40 percent.
There is still more than a month left in the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season, and the next storm will be named Patty. It follows Hurricane Oscar, which impacted Cuba last week.
National Hurricane Center meteorologists are monitoring an area of concern in the Caribbean Sea. Over the weekend, the system had a low chance of forming within the next seven days, but chances have now increased to moderate, according to the most recent NHC forecast.
“A broad area of low pressure is likely to develop over the southwestern Caribbean Sea in a few days,” the forecast said. “Gradual development is possible thereafter, and a tropical depression could form late this week or over the weekend while the system begins to drift northward or northeastward over the southwestern and central Caribbean Sea.”
The NHC posted on X, formerly Twitter, that the monitored system would not pose a threat to the United States within the next seven days.
NHC hurricane specialist Andrew Hagen told Newsweek that the system will likely still be in the Caribbean by this time next week. If the storm develops and moves further to the north, it could be pulled apart by strong wind shear in the area.
“If this system gets too far north, it will have a hard time strengthening any further,” Hagen said.
Typically, storms that form this late in the season either move west, over Central America as Tropical Storm Nadine did last week, or east, toward Cuba. AccuWeather senior meteorologist Alex DaSilva previously told Newsweek that based on current atmospheric conditions, he doubts the next storm will move west, should it form.
Given the NHC’s forecast, the storm would likely move north or northeast. Although it is too soon to forecast an official path, DaSilva said it’s possible the storm could target Florida and impact the western or southern parts of the state. Florida recently battled back-to-back major hurricanes, with Helene in late September and Milton in early October.
However, Hagen said that at this time, the system doesn’t pose a threat to Florida.
The NHC is not monitoring any other systems in the Atlantic Ocean as of Monday morning.
Should it form, Tropical Storm Patty will be the 16th named storm of the Atlantic hurricane season.
In May, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration published a forecast predicting 17 to 25 named storms with winds of 39 mph or higher. In August, the agency slightly updated its forecast and now expects 17 to 24 this season.